BaobabADVISORY SERVICES

Climate risk & resilience

Understand your exposure. Build a more resilient business.

Climate change reaches your business through its assets, operations and value chain. We turn physical and transition risk into a clear view of what is exposed, when it matters and how to respond.

  • Asset-level assessment
  • Scenario analysis
  • Practical action

A good fit for

For organisations bringing climate into risk management, assessing exposed assets or considering the resilience of their business model.

Tangible outcomes

What you leave with.

Clear outputs, documented thinking and practical next steps. The final scope is shaped around your organisation and agreed before we begin.

01

A climate risk and opportunity register

An organised view of relevant physical risks, transition risks and opportunities, linked to your activities, locations and value chain.

02

A scenario-informed assessment

An exploration of how selected climate futures and time horizons could affect the business, with assumptions and uncertainties made explicit.

03

A prioritised resilience response

A set of response options and next steps, distinguishing immediate actions from areas that need deeper investigation or specialist assessment.

04

A governance and disclosure brief

A concise account of the findings, responsibilities and review process to support leadership discussion, risk management and reporting.

Understand the exposure

Two types of risk.
One connected business.

A flooded site and a rising carbon cost follow different paths to your business. We assess both, then connect the findings to the decisions your team needs to make.

Physical risk

A changing climate. A direct business impact.

We assess how extreme events and longer-term climate shifts could affect your sites, operations and critical dependencies.

  • Flooding
  • Extreme heat
  • Wind & storms

How it reaches your business

  1. Flood exposure
  2. Site disruption
  3. Lost production

Where to strengthen assets and business continuity.

Transition risk

A changing economy. A different set of pressures.

We assess how policy, carbon pricing, technology and market shifts could affect your costs, revenues and business model.

  • Carbon pricing
  • Technology
  • Market shifts

How it reaches your business

  1. Carbon pricing
  2. Higher input costs
  3. Margin pressure

Where to adapt your strategy and investment plans.

Scenario analysis

Different futures. Better decisions today.

We test how exposure changes across plausible futures and time horizons. Explore the example below to see why a risk assessment needs more than one view of the future.

Change the scenario. See the effect.

Scenario workbench

Illustrative scenario · not a forecast
01 Choose a pathway
02 Choose a horizon
How risk changes over time

Relative index · 0–100 · higher means greater exposure or pressure

Physical exposure

45/100 in 2050

Transition pressure

38/100 in 2050

Orderly transition: illustrative risk trajectoriesPhysical exposure at 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050 is 24, 34, 40, 45 out of 100. Transition pressure over the same years is 25, 68, 48, 38 out of 100. The selected horizon is 2050. These are illustrative indices, not probabilities or forecasts.

Physical exposure averages the nine asset–hazard scores. Transition pressure is a separate illustrative index.

Where exposure concentrates

Three example sites · 2050 · exposure index

Illustrative physical exposure by site and hazard under Orderly transition, 2050. Scores range from 0 to 100; higher means greater exposure.
Example siteHeatFloodWater
CoastalLogistics hub
55 out of 100, moderate exposure
41 out of 100, moderate exposure
34 out of 100, low exposure
InlandProduction site
45 out of 100, moderate exposure
24 out of 100, low exposure
62 out of 100, high exposure
UrbanOffice
58 out of 100, moderate exposure
34 out of 100, low exposure
52 out of 100, moderate exposure
Low 0–34Moderate 35–59High 60–100

Use the pattern to identify where a closer asset-level assessment may be needed.

Orderly transition · 2050

A more orderly transition can limit the growth of physical exposure, but local risks remain. Here, water stress at the inland site still deserves attention.

Orderly transition, 2050. Physical exposure: 45 out of 100. Transition pressure: 38 out of 100. A more orderly transition can limit the growth of physical exposure, but local risks remain. Here, water stress at the inland site still deserves attention.

In your assessment, each result is linked to a named scenario, a data source and its limitations. Screening identifies where to look closer; a material site may need a detailed local study.

Our approach

From an asset list to a plan of action.

A structured assessment, with a useful output at every stage. We agree the scope upfront and leave your team with the evidence and the method to keep it current.

8–10 weeks

Indicative, depending on scope
  1. Weeks 1?2

    01Map the business

    Locate your sites and critical dependencies. Agree the scenarios, time horizons and materiality threshold before the analysis begins.

    Your output

    Asset map & assessment boundary

  2. Weeks 2?5

    02Test the exposure

    Screen flood, heat, water stress and wind across your portfolio. Compare scenarios and record the data source behind each result.

    Your output

    Physical risk register & scenario comparison

  3. Weeks 5?8

    03Connect risk to value

    Assess transition pressures with your teams. Quantify material exposures against the assets, costs and revenues they could affect.

    Your output

    Financial exposure & sensitivity analysis

  4. Weeks 8?10

    04Build the response

    Prioritise responses, document the assumptions and prepare your resilience statement. Hand over editable files and walk your team through the method.

    Your output

    Resilience statement & prioritised actions

Reporting support shaped around your applicable requirements.IFRS S2ESRS E1

Benefits

What you actually get out of it.

Know where to act first

A ranked view of your most exposed assets and dependencies, so attention goes to the risks that matter to the business.

Make better-informed decisions

Understand how different futures affect your operations and cost base, with assumptions and uncertainty visible alongside the results.

Show the evidence behind it

A documented assessment your team can explain to lenders, customers and assurance providers, with the source behind each material finding.

Connect the bigger picture

Cut your emissions.
Strengthen your resilience.

Your decarbonisation plan and climate risk assessment inform each other. Bring them together to test whether today’s investment decisions hold up under tomorrow’s conditions.

Explore Net zero & decarbonisation

Decarbonisation

Reduce your contribution to climate change.

Resilience

Prepare for its effects on your business.

One informed climate strategy

Frequently asked questions

What does it cost?

A fixed fee, set by the number of locations and by whether financial quantification is in scope. You get the fee and a written scope before the work starts. Anything outside that scope is quoted separately rather than absorbed and billed later.

Can we do this ourselves?

In part, yes. The main hazard datasets are public and free, including Copernicus, the JRC flood hazard maps and WRI Aqueduct for water stress, and a competent analyst can screen a small portfolio with them. The work we are usually called in for is what comes after: choosing scenarios that an assurance provider will accept, holding a materiality threshold under pressure, and writing the resilience statement.

How precise are the physical risk scores?

Hazard data is modelled at a resolution suited to screening a portfolio, not to deciding whether one particular building floods. We record the resolution and the reference year against every score. Where a site is material and the screening result is not decisive, the next step is a site-level study, and we mark the site rather than raise the confidence of a screening score.

Do we need a finished GHG inventory first?

Not for the physical screening, which runs off locations. Carbon price exposure needs Scope 1 and 2 volumes, so if those do not exist yet we either use the best available estimate and mark it as one, or run the inventory first and sequence the two pieces of work.

What happens when you leave?

You hold the register, the narratives and the statement as your own files, not as a login to something of ours. The scoring method, the scenario choices and the assumptions are written into the register itself, so next year's update does not depend on us being available.

Does this turn into a rolling programme?

No. The scope is the asset list, the scenarios and the horizons agreed in week two, and it is written down. Sites added afterwards, or a third scenario requested mid-way, are quoted as a change before any work is done on them.

What could climate change mean for your business?

Tell us about your sites, your reporting needs and the decisions ahead. We’ll help you define the right scope for your climate risk assessment.

Book a 30-min call